California’s elections are right around the corner, and IVP's own polling proves that independents are the voters with the power to control the outcome. Chad, Cara, and Ethan dig into the data behind Prop 39's voter ID fight and why it's not the fair contest it looks like on paper.

The crew opens by walking through why IVP's statewide surveys are catching things the big outlets miss, then puts that polling power to work on California's ballot. They break down Prop 41's push for an independent auditor on special taxes, then spend real time on the Insurance Commissioner race between Jane Kim and Ben Allen, where 67% of voters in IVP's poll couldn't decide between two very different Democrats. From there it's a deep dive into Prop 39: IVN's own split-test data shows the ballot title's use of the word "prohibit" shifted results by 15 to 20 points, enough to potentially flip the outcome, and the team argues it's a textbook case of partisan ballot manipulation hiding in plain sight.

Independent Voter Podcast now has its own YouTube channel! If you enjoy these conversations, subscribe to our dedicated channel for full episodes, interviews, and future content: https://youtube.com/@IndependentVoterPodcast

Listen to more episodes and read in-depth coverage at:

https://ivn.us

https://independentvoterproject.org

Follow and subscribe on audio platforms:

https://open.spotify.com/show/1VnqtqjZh9EbmDtVxvHF3R

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/independent-voter-podcast/id1680559155

‍